ENIVRONMENT ASIA

Volume 12, No. 01, Month JANUARY, Year 2019, Pages 83 - 92

Trends of heat-related mortality and association with weather variables in the northeast, thailand

Thiwakorn Rachutorn, Benjawan Twatsupa, Uraiwan Inmuong

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Heat-related morbidity and mortality are recognized as public health threat. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality from heat. The aims of this study is to explore trends in diseases of heat-related mortality in the northeast among selected specific-cause mortality, in the Northeast Thailand. We used a national database from the Strategy Planning Division, Ministry of Public Health for cause-specific mortality from heat in 4 groups including malignant neoplasm, diseases of the circulatory system, diseases of the respiratory system, diseases of the genitourinary system. Daily weather data provided by the Meteorological Department included temperature, humidity, precipitation, and wind speed for twenty provinces in the northeastern region of Thailand from 2006 to 2015. Joinpoint regression analysis and Poisson regression model was used for estimation the effect of heat on mortality. Results, the trend of annual specific-cause mortality increased with the Annual Percent Change (APC) of 7.74% of Malignant neoplasm, 9.80% for diseases of respiratory system, 12.03% for diseases of the circulatory system and 2.16% for diseases of the genitourinary system. A one-degree Celsius increase with the daily mean temperature was significantly associated with a 16% risk in all included mortalities used as an indicator for heat-related mortality (95% CI IRR= 1.11-1.21, p-value =<0.001), A one-degree Celsius increase in the daily maximum temperature was significantly associated with a 9% decreased risk in the same mortality (95% CI IRR=0.88-0.96, p-value < 0.001). In conclusion, trend analysis showed that heat-related mortality increased significantly during the period. Increased in daily temperature were positively associated with mortality in the northeast of Thailand. This suggested that there is a need to initiate any public health prevention and climate change adaptation from heat as to reduce the adverse effects of heat extremes on health.

Keywords

Health and climate change impact; Heat-related mortality; High temperature; Northeast Thailand

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