ENIVRONMENT ASIA

Volume 12, No. 01, Month JANUARY, Year 2019, Pages 102 - 107

The extreme climate indices for benghazi-libya from canadian regionalclimate model

Dalal M. El-Beshary, S, M. Robaa, Gamil G. Abd El-Motey, Zeinab Salah, and M. M. Abdel Wahab

Abstract Download PDF

Extreme weather events present serious threats to existing human life and resource systems. Events such as flooding, extreme heat or cold, heavy or high winds have the ability to destroy, disrupt, and disable vital links. In this article, some patterns of these indices were presented. Representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5) running by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) during 2011-2041 was used to study the future trend of climate indices over Benghazi in Libya. Totally different extreme climate indices were analyzed like the number of heat and cold waves, summer days and tropical nights. It is clear that the numbers of summer days (SU25) and tropical nights (TR20) have a positive sign, which implies that in each year there is a rise by one day and night. In addition, there is a major decrease within the trend of cold days and nights. For precipitation extreme indices, there are negative trends within the annual range of days: with the precipitation amount ≥ 1mm (-0.73), the annual range of days ≥ 10mm (-0.02), and the annual range of days ≥ 20mm (-0.022). Whereas for the annual total of daily precipitation > 95th percentile (0.041) there is a positive trend, and therefore the trend of the precipitation indices is insignificant as temperature indices, which may be induced to the uncertainty within the physics and parameterization of the precipitation within the regional model. Projection of future climate extreme indices is an important step for stakeholders to put adaptation plans to reduce the vulnerability risks upon society.

Keywords

Statistical downscaling; Extreme events; Libya; Canadian Regional Climate model

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