Understanding the rainfall patterns in northern Thailand is crucial for national water management since they affect
several of Thailand’s major rivers. This study aims to understand the trends of climatic variations in northern Thailand over the
past 64 years (1951-2014). Pre- and post-monsoon rainfalls are considered to assess temporal Southeast Asian monsoon (SEAM)
transition. Finally, multi-decadal oscillations of the rainfalls were evaluated using the Holt-Winters seasonal time-series analysis
and their associations with the biennial oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Madden-
Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the Schwabe-Hale cycle were also discussed. The results showed a climatic trend toward earlier
coming of the SEAM rainfall. The time-series and linear correlation analyses revealed that the ENSO, MJO, and solar irradiance
influenced the rainfalls differently in the pre- or post-SEAM or both and they were also related to the periodicities of the extreme
rainfall events. However, the IOD did not directly influence the local SEAM rainfall but it co-occurred with the ENSO.
Keywords
Southeast Asian monsoon, ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole, Madden-Julian Oscillation, Schwabe-Hale cycle
SONGKLANAKARIN JOURNAL OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
Published by : Prince of Songkla University Contributions welcome at : http://rdo.psu.ac.th
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